Author Naisbitt Discusses Economic 'Megatrends'

The author of the bestselling book "Megatrends" visited the Kennedy School of Government yesterday to discuss economic developments that he said will change the world.

John Naisbitt, speaking in a packed ARCO Forum of Public Affairs, said people would remember the 1980s as a "tremendous shaking period" that would alter every aspect of human life.

"Naisbitt, a visiting fellow of the Institute of Politics, said there would be great changes in the corporate world, and outlined "14 Partially Baked Ideas," trends he alleged would "reinvent" corporations and thus improve the human condition.

These trends, which the author will discuss in his second book, include a global economy, replacement of middle management by computers, and a new credibility given to "intuition, hunch, and faith."

Economic growth areas of the future include the computer industry, health care, leisure and entertainment fields, and law, Naisbitt said, adding. "I used to think there were enough lawyers--now I hear they're using them instead to mice in experiments at MIT."

In addition, Naisbitt said, the job market will place less value on the specialist and more on the "generalist who can adapt."

The most important skill will be "leaning how to learn," he said, adding. "Your IQ actually goes down as you work toward a Ph.D."

Naisbitt also pointed out a trend toward comparable worth in which people would receive equal pay for equally challenging jobs, a trend which would especially benefit women.

"Walter Mondale deserves a lot of credit for putting a woman on his ticket," he said, adding to a round of applause that he predicted a "string of woman Presidents" in years to come.

One result of these trends, Naisbitt said, will be a "renaissance" in the arts and literature as increased technology makes people re-examine human qualities and values.

The author maintained that this renaissance is also occurring in Japan, a country in which "Megatrends" has sold more copies per capita than in the U.S., and which is experiencing a resurgence of interest in traditional tea ceremonies, flower arranging, and spirituality.

Published in 1982, "Megatrends" spent 60 weeks on The New York Times bestseller list.

Naisbitt attributed the book's popularity to the fact that it merely articulated ideas whose time had come.

Naisbitt will spend two days at Harvard, visiting classes and attending a luncheon at one of the Houses.