Scientists Ponder Gas Disaster

A small explosion sparks a fire within a local laboratory, releasing half a liter of toxic nerve gas agents through a broken window into the atmosphere. A warm summer's breeze carries the cloud of nerve gas past a nearby highway, motel, bowling alley, playground and disco. In a matter of minutes, several hundred unsuspecting people are subject to the devastating effects of toxic substances.

If this sounds like the recent devastation which killed 2000 and injured 200,000 more in Bhopal, India last week, think again.

It's a "worst-case" scenario written by Cambridge's Scientific Advisory Committee to speculate on the impact of a release of nerve gas from the Arthur D. Little (ADL) research facility in North Cambridge. The committee believes such a turn of events is unlikely, but not altogether impossible.

In a report released last September, this group of local biochemists, physicists and environmental experts unanimously concluded that Cambridge should not allow the storage or resting of chemical war fare agents in be quantities and concentrations used by ADL within the city.

The gaseous cloud released by several tons of methyl isocyanate blanketed the Indian community of 900,000 before anyone could escape. In the event of a similar Cambridge accident, however, a half kilogram of nerve gas emanating from ADL would have "some impact, but nowhere near the effect of the thing in India," says Edmund Crouch, a Harvard physicist who lent his risk-assessing skills to the local advisory group.

"People would be mobile and awake, and start noticing the effects of the gas before they get a fatal dose," Crouch said yesterday in reference to a potential Cambridge disaster, adding that a victim would have to "stand in a very narrow stream of this stuff [for several] minutes" before dying.

Company Line

"We do not think there is clear and present danger at this facility." Patrick Pollino, an ADL official, reiterated yesterday. ADL safely uses small quantities of toxic substances at a state-of-the-art laboratory, kept in containers and transported by aimed, guards, according to Pollino.

Last spring ADL, primarily a defense contractor, sued the City of Cambridge to block an ordinance which prohibited the testing, storing and transportation of nerve gas agents within city limits. The case is currently pending before Middlesex Superior Court.

Pollino added that ADL has set up a warning system to alert the public through the fire department and community groups in the event of an emergency.

"In the case of an accident, I don't think you can warn the public in time," said Crouch.

Comparisons

The attitudes of Union Carbide and Arthur D. Little toward safety measures as well as their decisions to locate near densely populated areas are quite similar, according to Sheldon Krimsky, chairman of Cambridge's Scientific Advisory Commission.

"Both companies were not willing to accept conditions of a 'worst-case' scenario." Krimsky said, adding. "Union Carbide admitted that it never did one and never responded to it. ADL was very critical of the 'worst-case' analysis done by the City."

"The purpose of a 'worst-case' scenario is...to determine how many lives are threatened if the worst possible thing happens," said the Tufts professor of urban and environmental policy. Such preliminary safety studies can establish the need for emergency plans, the quantities of substances on a premises, and the supply of an antidote for the populace, says Krimsky

ADL failed to provide "worst case" information after repeated requests by the Scientific Advisory committee for such material.

Dangerous Unknown

Crouch added that the toxological effects of large quantities of at least 60,000 chemicals used nationwide in commercial industry currently are not known.

However, Crouch did say that several tons of chlorine gas at the site of the City's water purification facility located 100 yards away from ADL "would have effects similar to The India case" if large quantities were released in an explosion.

'It's an industrial use employed to keep your water clean," says Crouch in weighing the relative risks and benefits of chlorine gas.