Old Mistakes

AFTER SIX MONTHS of constant invocation during the presidential campaign, one would hope that the name and deeds of John F. Kennedy '40 would be given a rest.

But the recent Nicaraguan MIG incident reminds one of both the best and the worst of the slain President's administration. Sneaky Soviet arms shipments to a leftist Latin American regime recall the great crisis of Kennedy's administration, the Cuban Missile Crisis. A confused staff and inaccurate intelligence were the hallmarks of the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion. With two such ominous precedents, it is no surprise that that this year's episode terminated on such an inconclusive note.

The fuss over the mail-order MiGs will not go down in the history books as one of the Reagan Administration's finest hours. The various anonymous Administration sources who were supplying the breathless warnings of Nicaraguan misdeeds sounded less like belligerent hawks than professional Chicken Littles, proclaiming the doom of MiG 21's within range of America's banana supplies. The leaking hysteria became a flood that engulfed even the normally cool-headed Sen. Paul E. Tsongas (D-Mass.), who warned that if the MiG's were aboard the Soviet freighters, American military action would be necessary.

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Soviet fighters had been aboard the freighters, the military threat these obsolete planes pose is inconsequential. Certainly they would have represented a worrisome escalation in Nicaragua's military strength, but they pose little danger to American air superiority in the area, particularly since Nicaragua does not have pilots experienced enough to fly the MiGs.

Take, for a moment, the realistic and hard-headed view of the situation. Forget the history of poverty and repression of Nicaragua under the U.S. backed Somaza regime. Forget the deaths and suffering caused by the American-backed contras, who are fighting a war the Reagan administration has admitted is unminnable. Forget the fact that American Monty paid for the mines that appeared magically in Member's harbors. Forget all that, examine Reagan's Latin American politics with the cool eye of realpolillk, and have a good laugh. No matter how you slice it, Reagan's handling of Nicaragua has been monumentally bad.

Reagan has stated that he wants to make the Sundinistas cease supplying the guerrillas in El Salvador. Well, those guerrillas are still fully armed. The President would certainly enjoy seeing the Sandinistas sink into Central American anarchy, but the Sandinistas are stronger than ever. The Nicaraguan junta has been warning of an American invasion for more than two years. American muscle flexing and saber rattling gives them the best of both worlds, allowing the Sandinistas to capitalize on public fear of the Yankee threat without risking a war. And after a solid week of sonic booms over Managua-probably caused by American reconnaissance planets-the Sandinista are probably filling out the forms for a real batch of planes.

If Reagan really wants the Sandinistas to calm down, he and h is aides will have to start to use some less belligerent rhetoric, and follow up with some serious negotiations.

Of course, Reagan's real desire is to quash the Nicaraguan regime by diplomatic and subversive means. But with aid to the contra guerrilla forces cut off by Congress, and the newly elected Nicaraguan government assured of popular support for the near future, the likelihood of an overthrow seems low indeed. Rather than muscling or hustling the Sandinistas, the Reagan Administration might accomplish something tangible by dealing with the present situation, instead of reacting to imagined situations.

A few month's ago many of Reagan's gloomier detractors warned that if Reagan were re-elected, Bob Hope would be entertaining our boys in Managua by Christmas. However, even the Reagan administration probably knows better than to seriously consider a Grenada style invasion in Nicaragua. The problem is not that we are on the verge of a Latin American Vietnam, but rather that our own administration seems determined to repeat some of history's mistakes.