Filling Baker's Shoes

WHEN Sen. Howard H. Baker Jr. (R-Tenn) waved goodbye to his colleagues at the close of Congress' 98th session two weeks ago, the Senate laid aside its rule against applause to give the Majority Leader a standing ovation. Retiring to pursue a full-time Presidential bid, the 18-year veteran left behind him a record of good-humored and effective leadership in the maelstrom that is Senate politics.

Baker's departure has set in motion a campaign which is more low-key but at least as important as the battles raging at the state level this month. On November 28 the Senate will elect by secret ballot its next Majority leader--a man who will almost single-handedly control the body's legislative agenda, be its principal spokesman and act as his party's prime troubleshooter on the floor. It is almost certain that the Republican Party will maintain its dominance in the Senate--but the character of the person it chooses to guide it will have a large impact both on inter-party relations and on the policies that come out of the 99th Congress.

The race to succeed Howard Baker is being hotly contested by five Republican Senate leaders:

--Robert Dole (R-Kan.), chair of the powerful Senate Finance Committee and one of the most prominent candidates for Baker's spot. A senator since 1968, Dole gained fame as President Gerald R. Ford's 1976 running mate and hatchet-man; in 1980, he launched an abortive bid of his own for the nation's highest office. Recently dubbed the 14th most influential American in a survey by U.S. News and World Report, Dole has distinguished himself as a Great Compromiser during the current Administration, most notably for his success in reconciling Republicans and Democrats to a key Voting Rights Act extension and a sweeping tax reform proposal.

Dole's wit and refreshing candor have won him many friends in the clubby Senate, but his hard-driven style as a legislative manipulator could work against him. His record as a relative moderate--he has parted ways with the Reagan Administration on a number of key issues, including the need for tax increases to reduce the federal deficit--will insure him the support of GOP liberal mavericks, but may make him suspicious in the eyes of the right-wing. More damning still, the liberal Village Voice labelled Dole the "true thinking man's dark horse for 1984."

Despite these liabilities, however, Dole has retained his ties to the White House (not least by his marriage to Elizabeth Dole, the Secretary of Transportation and the seventh woman ever to serve on a Presidential cabinet) and many see him as perhaps the perfect compromise candidate for an ideologically divided Senate majority. What could hurt him, though, are his undistinguished Presidential ambitions; several of his opponents have warned their colleagues not to elect a Majority Leader who will spend four years promoting his own political interests.

--If Dole is the front-runner, Indiana Senator Richard G. Lugar is hot on his trail. Though he lacks the seniority of his competitors (Lugar first entered the Senate in 1976), he enjoys a velvety smooth relationship with the Reagan Administration and is well-liked for his conciliatory approach in the legislature. Moreover, Lugar chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has dispersed more than $8 million so far to support 1984 Republican senatorial contenders. Those who survive close challenges on November 6 may find themselves grateful to the man who enabled them to buy more television ad time.

Another factor working in Lugar's favor is the structure of the selection system. The Majority Leader must be elected by a majority of his Republican colleagues; if no one triumphs on a first ballot, the last-place finisher drops out, and his votes are redistributed among the remaining contenders. In the view of most Congress-watchers, Lugar is everyone's second-choice.

--James A. McClure (R-Idaho) is the favorite of the powerful conservative wing of the GOP, and boasts openly of being "the most conservative leader in the Senate." The chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, McClure doubles as the leader of the Senate Republican Conference, today one of the most powerful centers of leverage in Washington.

But McClure's cultivated rightwing reputation could easily backfire on November 28. One of the most important responsibilities of the Senate Majority Leader is the ability to deal with his Democratic counterpart on a daily basis, and to be able to effect compromise on key policy issues; McClure's penchant for hostility towards the other party would seriously handicap his dealings with Minority Leader Robert C. Byrd.

--Pete V. Domenici (R-New Mex.) will likely be the first to drop out of the race if voting goes to a second ballot. The Chairman of the influential Budget Committee and a 12-year Senate veteran, Domenici is known as a staunch budget-cutter and a capable, though profoundly unexciting, legislator. He's been keeping very quiet about his candidacy for Howard Baker's post--and not too many people are talking about him either.

--One darkhorse who is exacting comment, though, is Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens, an accomplished leader who has spent the last four years as the Number Two GOP man in the Senate, the Majority Whip. Stevens has been running on the issue of Senate procedural reform, and experts say that cause currently has a lot of sympathy in the halls of the Capitol.

Stevens has worried publicly that his roots in an offshore state could hurt him; much of his legislative time has been spent arguing key constituent issues, such as the Alaskan pipeline and treatment of his state's protected natural resources. But that same distance from the more controversial national issues--such as abortion--might rebound to his benefit. By not identifying himself with entangling and emotionally polarizing issues, experts say, Stevens may have managed to avoid alienating key Senate decision-makers.

BUT PERHAPS the most important point about the race for Majority Leader is that it's not over 'til it's over. Ballots are secret and voting takes place in closed session, so it's difficult to predict how senators will really throw their support. Unlike the many races raging across the nation this week, this one is quiet and behind-doors--there are no polltakers to measure the daily pulse.

What might, in the end, decide this race is something as subjective and unpredictable as personality. After all, experts are quick to point out, the United States Senate is a small and private club--and members will want a Grand Poobah with whom they feel personally comfortable reading the minutes and collecting the dues.