Ronnie on the Beach

RUMORS HAVE BEEN circulating around the East coast that President Reagan will not run for re-election because Nancy is ill and has been discouraging him from returning to the campaign trail.

These rumors may be false, and certainly no one in the Administration is going to let the public know until Reagan tells us all on the 29th of the month.

But true or not, my hunch is that the President will tell the nation he will be retiring to his California ranch next January, thereby sealing in one of the few unquestionably successful presidencies in recent years.

True, Reagan has brought the nation ever closer to nuclear apocalypse and has impoverished more Americans than any president in the last few decades. But, unlike his Democratic predecessors, Reagan told the country what he would do, received a mandate, and went out and did it.

It is doubtful that he will want to be around for four more years to watch his foreign policy initiative back-fire and his economic measures lead to another major recession.

Moreover, running for reelection would mean an increased schedule of campaigning and travelling, and a large cutback in the amount of time the President and his wife take for vacation.

Reagan will soon be 74 years old, and while his stay in the White House has seemingly left him healthier than ever, he must realize what a strain a protracted nine-month campaign would be on him and Nancy.

The only conceivable reason that Reagan would want to run again is to prevent the Republicans from going down the drain. But even this argument is beginning to evaporate in the wake of the Democrats' leadership vacuum.

There is mounting evidence that the Republican Party is preparing to find a replacement for the popular conservative. Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker (R-Tenn.), having said he will not seek reelection, is in prime position to launch a drive to win the nomination in Dallas this August.

Baker, running on either end of a ticket with Vice-President George Bush, would be able to take advantage of the formidable Reagan-Bush campaign machine, which is reportedly based on former President Richard M. Nixon's 1972 organization.

However, Republican leaders probably understand that Reagan, Bush, or any other contender would not be able to hold together a Western and Southern coalition the way the Great Communicator can.

But if the Democrats can do no better than put forward a candidate as tied to the tired, old liberal coalition as former Vice-President Walter F. Mondale, then any Republican candidate may be unbeatable.

The Republican party is strong enough to withstand a Reagan retirement precisely because any moderate, consensus-minded Republican will be able to pass himself off as less hackneyed and retro than the likely Democratic nominee Mondale.

Unlike Mondale, who is putting forth a platform that was roundly repudiated four years ago, the Republican Party can say, with at least some validity, that it is trying something new.

With America revelling in the wanton machismo of Grenada and pseudo-Keynesian recovery, the political climate is perfect for Reagan retirement.

Unlike the ambitious, driven men who have endlessly striven for power and have given their lives to keep it, Reagan, for one, looks like the kind of guy who would toss the Presidency for long, tall drink and a day by the pool.

At least we should hope.