Germany's Elusive Turning Point

About a month ago a German friend used an unusual word to describe to me the pending German elections on March 6, 1983. He said the results would be a Weichenstellung, a "switching point" or "turning point" in German history. I think my friend was trying to convey his anxiety over the possible outcomes which, in a worst-case scenario, could lead his country into a go-it-alone neutralism and neo-nationalism with a deliberately diminished economy.

Actually if one looks back, "turning points" seem to abound in the past half century of German history. From the appointment of Adolf Hitler as Chancellor in 1933 to the initiation of Chancellor; Brandt's Ostpolitik in 1970. Germans have time and again confronted radical shifts and new beginnings in national policies.

But to be realistic, one must always recognize this same period of German history has also recorded a fair share of what may be called striking "anticlimaxes" or aborted crises. These were moments in which history failed to turn a likely corner, failed to move in new directions. Think for example of the "might-have-beens" connected with such anticlimaxes as the unsuccessful assassination of Hitler on July 20, 1944, the Berlin Blockade of 1948, the soon vanquished East German uprising of June 17, 1953, even the construction of the Berlin Wall on August 13, 1961 However much we may lament or applaud the eventual denouement of these prospectively momentous watersheds, they did turn out somehow to be arrested turning points, fizzles on the stage of long-term historical developments.

Today, of course, we know the decisive election victory of Chancellor Helmut Kohl's conservative coalition was exactly one of these continuities, not ruptures, in German history. Were there ever any real reasons to doubt the election results? Why all the worry and hand-wringing?

Good reasons for deep concern were present. First, of all major nations, Germany is perhaps the most polled, probed, poked, and questionnaired. In recent months, several leading polls prior to local state elections had proved significantly in error. Now, in this national election, few people trusted poll predictions. Second, with 10.4 percent of the German labor force unemployed and a new high in business bankruptcies, a number of wildcards had been introduced into the political game and upset many players who still recalled with dismay the disastrous political consequences of the 1929 economic depression. Third, the unprecedented appearance of three major foreign leaders--Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko. French President Mitterand, and Vice President Bush--all parading through Bonn and taking public stands, inevitably produced shock waves echoing back and forth unpredictably in the electorate. Fourth, the message of the anti-nuclear, clean environment, small-is-better Greens seemed to resonate with the deep-rooted emotions of longing and resentment, and their very presence on public platforms exerted incalculable pushes and pulls in the political spectrum. For all these reasons plus the expectation of a near-record turnout of 90 percent, few Germans except pollsters--were willing to go out on a limb with firm forecasts.

Nevertheless, when all the election figures came in a week ago last Sunday, the most surprising conclusion was there were no major surprises, no great disruption to the party system. It was true the Christian Democrats nearly equalled the landslide victory of Kontad Adenauer in 1957, they failed to acquire an absolute majority which would have enabled them to rule without a coalition. The Social Democrats did suffer the worst defeat since 1961, but then they had been in power for 13 long years, and some decline in influence was to be expected Moreover, the small liberal Free Democratic Party recoiled from its calamitous showings in recent local elections and returned to the Bundestag with a respectable 6.9 percent of the vote. Finally the four-year-old Greens barely made it into the Bundestag for the first time with 5.9. percent of the vote.

Post-election analysis has revealed some interesting insights into the dynamics of this election. Clearly, the Christian Democrats took votes almost everywhere from the Social Democrats. Even in industrial areas like North-Rhine-Westphalia, the conservative emerged as victors, scoring heavily with women and skilled workers. Although Franz Josef Strauss's Christian Social Union---the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democrats--polled 10.6 percent of the vote, there is evidence his party registered less than one percent gain over the last national election results. In fact, many sophisticated voters did split their two votes between the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats in order to prevent the likehood of Strauss becoming foreign minister in a majority government under Kohl.

At any rate, most voters seemed to worry more about economic issues and stability rather than modernized missiles and new experiments. In addition, blatant Soviet encouragement of the Social Democrats certainly injured that party and its claim to represent independent German interests. Only the fact that the Soviets have meddled and miscalculated in other elections in other countries can explain such foolhardy blindness. Big losers here may be former Chancellor Brandt and armaments expert Egon Bahr, both exponents of a soft-left, nationalist Social Democracy

Finally the Greens achieved their gains from the young and unemployed, the turned-off and disappointed, and strong-minded Protestants and Catholics To have the Greens in the Bundestag may be better than to have them demonstrating in the streets, probably they will be in both places anyway However, anyone seeing Petta Kelly, one of the Greens "non-leader" leaders on CBS's "60 Minutes" several weeks ago may well wonder about the direction of this party. Her fascinating blend of inspired idealism and personal charisma, anti-American venom and silence about the Soviet Union, adept fabrication of vivid political metaphors and cliches, all of which qualities could be placed in the service of exceedingly unstable policies.

But the bottom, line is the March elections in Germany were a victory for stability and for partnership with the western allies. Predicting the unpredictable we can say the future for democracy in the heart of Europe looks good or at least a little better than it did two weeks ago.

Dr. Richard M. Hunt is a senior lecturer in Social Studies who specializes in modern Germans.