Whistling Dixie Out of Tune

PREJUDICES and memories being what they are, the Democratic Party should have learned one thing from the experience of Jimmy Carter--that another Southerner with little Federal experience or name recognition is not likely to win an election. At least two Southerners, have however with an optimism the rest of the party may not share, already announced their candidacies for president, a third and a fourth may do so, and many others are considered as possible nominees for vice president.

To have so many Southerners running so soon after the defeat of Jimmy Carter seems surprising. But the face and constituency of the Democratic Party are changing with the withdrawal of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy '54 (D. Mass.), Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio) and former Vice President Walter Mondale are the only candidates from the traditional industrial Northeast and Midwest party base Historically, the South has been the other base of the party, dutifully casting its electoral votes in the Democratic column in most Presidential elections. (The exceptions were 1964, when most of the Deep South voted for Gold water, and the Nixon and Reagan landslides of 1972 and 1980.) So three Southern Presidential candidates in a wide field should come as no surprise to the Democrats. Further, in this election of 1984, other Democratic candidates hail from such interesting, traditionally Republican places as Colorado and California.

One is tempted to believe that the four conservative Southerners--Sen. Fritz Hollings (D.S.C), former Gov. Reubin Askew of Florida, probably Sen. Dale Bumpers (D-Ark.), and perhaps former National Party Chairman Robert Straus of Texas--have entered the fray partly out of the much heralded "turn to the right" the country experienced in 1980. Indeed, early press reports indicated that Sen. Hollings based the rationale for his campaign in part on those halcyonyon pre recession days of 1981, when Time referred to Reagan as a domestically able President," and a Democratic candidacy as a conservative alternative to Ronald Reagan seemed credible. The Southerners in fact do appear to be running on more conservative platforms. Askew opposes the Domestic Content Bill (in other words, protectionism) and abortion. Among the other candidates, Glenn is counting on strong Southern support to wrest the nomination away from Mondale. The Washington Post noted that Glenn "is the only candidate who has shown considerable strength in the Confederacy."

Note the phraseology of that Post comment. The reporter did not write "in the South" or even "in the former Confederacy" Without wishing to open a Pandora's Box by discussing the question of Southern identity in the late 20th century, one should note that in that phraseology lies the whole problem confronting a Southern candidate for the Presidency: a lingering sense of Southern separateness combines with an equally lingering suspicion, hostility, even prejudice against the South. The Jimmy Carter saga only heightened these tensions.

REALISTICALLY, the chance for these Southern candidates in 1984 are slim. Sen. Hollings' bumperstickers were the first to appear on Washington streets last summer, but his organization in such key states as Iowa and New Hampshire appears weak. It seems doubtful that he could win the nomination in the primaries. Governor Askew is clearly running as the conservative in the field and as a fresh face. What he seems to have forgotten about 1976, however, is that Jimmy Carter, because of Watergate, could easily run on the morality issue, and that other prominent Democrats were not in the race--Wallace was perceived as too infirm, and the nation learned of the tragedy of Hubert Humphrey's cancer in his decision not to run. Sen. Bumpers has started to organize too late (yes, March 1983 is probably too late). Straus is an interesting and potentially attractive candidate--a Southerner and a prominent conservative within the party--but he would also be the first Jewish American to run seriously for President. Only in a deadlocked convention does he appear to have a chance.

The prospects for a Southern Democratic Presidential candidate in 1984, then, are not great. But while the Democratic Party undergoes a deep transition and re-examines its ideological positions, its Southern wing remains strong. Southern Democrats' successes in the midterm elections will give Southerners more convention votes, and the vice presidential nomination is still an open question. If ideological and regional balancing forces work as they have in the past, then a Southerner should have an excellent chance, especially on a Mondale or Glenn ticket. In addition to the Presidential aspirants, some other Southern politicians who appear to be of Vice Presidential stature (if such a rank exists) include Governors Charles Robb of Virginia, Mark White of Texas, and William Winter of Mississippi. In any event, a Southern presence will almost certainly be felt at the 1984 convention. And Southern candidacies could go far towards reconciling Northern Democrats with the ex-confederacy.