Tommy's Crunch

THE O'NEILL CLAN of North Cambridge has been better weeks than last. In Washington, dad "Tip" got lambasted by the President in their annual tussle over budget cuts. Back home, the family suffered a couple of minor embarrassments; the speaker's mother, minutes late to a Cambridge ward caucus, was locked out and prohibited from voting; daughter-in-law Jackie ran for one of the delegate slots in Boston's word 5 caucus-and lost. Worst of all, as the week went on, and the official tallies from the state's roughly 600 ward caucuses trickled is, it became increasingly clear than son Tommy had failed miserably his first test in his quest for the Bay State's governorship.

In the tortuous campaign for the Democratic nomination, already four months old and designed to last another seven, last weekend's caucuses have so official bearing. Delegates selected at the meetings are neither legally nor morally bound to support any candidate at the May 22 nominating convention in Springfield. Nor must party members stick to the choice of that gathering. The politician with the (D) after his name on November's ballot will not be finally selected until the September primary.

Yet the dismal showing of lieutenant governor Thomas P. O'Neill ill in his attempt to shed the first half of his title, could fatally cripple his candidacy. Even veteran observers were shocked by the magnitude of the walloping administered to O'Neill by former governor Michael s. Dukakis and Gov. Edward J. king. Though acknowledging before the caucuses that Dukakis would probably pull in a large majority, O'Neill's camp hoped for a respectable share, perhaps even to best king, who all along had belittle the caucuses and had never officially organized for then. But, by all accounts save his own, O'Neill earned no more than 10 percent of the delegates--a bare one-third of King's total and one-sixth of Dukakis'. Commented one observer. "He finished fourth in a three-man race.

Of the 100-plus registered Cambridge Democrats walking last Saturday into the Cambridge Rindge and Latin High School cafeteria--the site of the Harvard-area Ward 6 caucus--only one sported a Tom O'Neill's button. The Dukakis slate prevailed with near unanimity, O'Neill's men insist they never expected to carry that "liberal activist" section of Tommy's hometown. But it's harder for them to explain why he couldn't sweep eastern and northern Cambridge, or why his supporters joined with King forces in his very own ward 10 "neighborhood slate"--a strategy some coordinators had said they would use only if it looked like Dukakis could win. More telling than the aggregate results are the regional figures, they show O'Neill's inability to take more than one-third of his own city, and to capture much of anything outside of the North-Cambridge-Somerville area in which he grew up. They prove that the campaign has failed to accomplish the early goals it had set--to establish a solid base upon which to build.

A YEAR-LONG CAMPAIGN with just three official contests--the caucuses, the convention, and the primary election--needs more benchmarks to fill in the gaps and to keep the media happy, and so the next litmus test for all to examine is O'Neill fundraiser next week. A $100-a-head cocktail reception at Quincy Market, the get-together was scheduled to bolster the ailing finances of the flagging crusade. Both Dukakis and King have more than half a million dollars at their disposal, and can get more when they need it. O'Neill has $5,000 in the bank.

That O'Neill's strategists are now obsessed with such fund drives indicates a turn for the worse, as they seedily acknowledge. Says one aide, "I'd hoped we could use the springtime to organize for the primary based on our caucus turnout. But now we've got to raise money instead. The whole cycle has been thrown off." Their delusion that this specific fundraiser can replenish O'Neill coffers shows further the futility of the effort. The campaign is currently several thousand in debt, and the candidate has taken out a personal loan. The $50,000 they hope to net from Tuesday's event will hardly provide the impetus needed.

The set-up of the Quincy Market gets reflects a problem with O'Neill's campaign that cuts deeper than the discouraging numbers; the bash has been billed as featuring Tommy's dad, Speaker of the U.S. House. More than King of Dukakis, Tommy O'Neill's main adversary is his image as a political lightweight. To many observers, his election and re-election to the state's second highest office stemmed more from his name than his record. And even his supporters admit it was no coincidence that his major accomplishment in office--channeling federal funds to Massachusetts--came just when his father assumed congressional power. Importing Tip to boister the flagging campaign reinforces this damaging reputation.

DESPITE WHAT increasingly appears a futile exercise, O'Neill's troops tenaciously maintain that their man will be on top in September. At a reception in the plush Parker House Wednesday night, O'Neill told 500 supporters he was "in the race to stay." But if he continues on his cruise to lose, the key question his candidacy raises is what effect--if any--his persistence will have on his more formidable contenders.

The common wisdom is that a vote for the lieutenant governor is a vote taken from Dukakis. While Dukakis leaders say they are confident of victory no matter how many hats are in the ring, some of the Duke's supporters fear that O'Neill may not drop out honorably--a stubbornness that could spoil things for the liberal wing of the party, or for the party itself.

But by defying these sentiments, O'Neill can make his greatest contribution. In the manner made chic by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy '54 (D-Mass.) in his 1980 losing presidential bid, O'Neill should continue his candidacy--and make his party his cause.

King has clearly staked out the right on fiscal and social issues. In a two-man race, Dukakis would inherit by default the left, a constituency he has not yet clearly earned. Riding on a crest of popularity, Dukakis has successfully ducked substantive discussion of the key issues in the race--taxes, education, housing, criminal reform. The major campaign change he says he intends to make over his ill-fated 1978 bid is that he will try harder to get elected--he has not said he would change any of his old stances if elected. O'Neill, on the other hand, has put forth substantive proposals; his tax reform plan,for example has the imprimatur of several reputed economists.

To make political discourse more than one big useless, contradictory comparison of King's and Dukakis' terms in office, Massachusetts needs a third candidate. Tom O'Neill won't have the opportunity to move into the governor's mansion next year. But when he comes home to North Cambridge after a real campaign on the issues, his family can feel a little better about what he has done.