Skocpol Says Revolt Unlikely In South Africa

Revolutions will probably not occur in South Africa or in the Third World without heavy outside pressure to weaken the existing regimes there, Theda R. Skocpol, associate professor of Sociology, told an audience of about 40 people at the Cambridge Forum last night.

The governments now in power in many of those countries have already set up strong military establishments that would normally work with conservative interests to resist local efforts at revolution, Skocpol said.

"The significant variable is whether or not a revolution can sink some strong roots into the population," she added.

In South Africa, the local population would probably continue to endure the present oppressive system for a long time, unless military or economic pressure from outside countries accelerates the breakdown of the government, Skocpol said.

The same is true of many underdeveloped nations, she added. In each case, the most effective pressures that could break down the conservative-military alliances would be economic boycotts by major trading powers, or guerilla movements based in surrounding countries, Skocpol said.

She added that she does not believe outside countries will begin exerting these pressures soon.

"It's not a bright period for advancements in egalitarian policy," Skocpol said.