Roll 'Em Up

Pig farmers never liked it. They wanted to change the name to "New Jersey flu," but Jersey officials felt state had enough problems. Now UHS says that the swine flue vaccine--without an alias, but two months late --is on its way.

The clinic will offer a two-pronged (bivalent) vaccine to elderly and chronically ill patients later this month, a shot that should protect against both swine flu and the more prosaic Victoria-A. About two weeks later doctors at UHS will recommend that the rest of us line up for our shots--bivalent, if there's any left, or else monovalent (swine flu only). The clinic's policy of recommending the vaccine to everyone over 18 is in line with federal policy.

But sound reasons exist for undergraduates to examine the evidence before rolling up their sleeves. the vaccine offers young adults about a 50 per cent chance of protection in return for a 2 per cent chance of incurring a low-grade fever, a greater risk of tenderness at the site of the shot, and the very remote possibility of more serious harm.

Moreover, exposure to swine flu, if it hits, would likely produce only a moderate illness in a student-aged victim and, unlike the vaccine, would provide immunity for many winters to come.

Finally, there probably won't be a swine flu epidemic this winter. A Harvard study released this week estimates the chances at one in ten, based on the opinions of 15 flu experts--including three at the federal Center for Disease Control in Atlanta, which has pushed hard for the immunization program from the start. But those experts placed their bets last spring, and in the intervening months no one has found a trace of the mysterious disease.