A Conservative Comeback in the Making?

The recent victories of a few conservatives in primaries across the country have led right-wing ideologues to the happy conclusion that the Goldwater defeat in 1964 represents not the popular repudiation of an aberration, but rather the start of a sweeping conservative trend. Yet public opinion studies as well as the strategies being followed by many G.O.P. leaders across the country indicate something quite different. If anything, the voters are uneasy and desire a brief period of retrenchment; and they are often sympathetic to the candidacies of men hoping to topple leaders seeking to extend their tenure and progressive policies beyond normal bounds.

Hence the precarious positions of big-stage governors like Democrat Edmund Brown of California and liberal Republican Nelson Rockefeller of New York. Since 1958, each has had his name tied to controversial, progressive state policies -- once that often alienated self-interested blocs that had aided in their original victories. In addition, each has tried to confront the racist issue of "crime in the streets" without much success. Time and partisan bickering have dissipated the aura of freshness, novelty, and change that accompanied their ascent to the highest state of fice.

Most important, perhaps, the third term attempt of each seems to offend many voters who would otherwise support them -- those who periodically succumb to the "change for the sake of change" mentality. The defeat of moderate Republican Robert Smylie in the Idaho gubernatorial primary by a Goldwaterite seems to have been caused by the issue of a fourth term the incumbent sought and the enactment of an unpopular state sales tax he pressed for, rather than the vitriolic campaign state party leaders waged against him.

New Chants

There is also ample evidence suggesting that many voters are wary of what might be termed the "welfare explosion" of state, federal, and local budgets in the last ten years -- and doubts about the wisdom of government spending are due largely to the inflation caused by the war in Vietnam. For the first time, the Aid to Dependent Children program is becoming a political issue, and a rallying cry for those in northern cities who feel compelled to cloak their casual bigotry with cries of "fiscal excess." Furthermore, the victory of Jim Johnson, a racist with Goldwaterite notions about the role of government in American life, over a moderate in the Democratic primary for governor of Arkansas demonstrated that the voters opposed or tries of the vast state spending programs of Orval Faubus, as much as they applauded his istransigence toward integration.

Opponents of liberals in the fall elections will probably shun the our raged, ideological rhetoric which contributed to the Goldwater disaster. Ronald Reagan and his corps of public relations advisors realize all too well that such antics can raise lots of money at rallies of Americans for constitutional Action el al, but have no place on the political stump or on TV anymore. Instead Reagan, who probably has better connections with more kooks than any man in the nation, is gearing his campaign to those who have become disenchanted with Governor Brown in the past eight years -- mostly restless Democrats and independents -- and letting the hard core G.O.P. vote take care of itself. He is banking on rhetoric proposing a "creative" rather than a "great" society to appeal to a general undercurrent of malaise he dimly perceives in the California electorate. He also knows that people are tired of Pat Brown and fair housing laws.

Ford

The Republican leader in the House, Rep. Gerald Ford of Michigan, does not offer smiling generalities. Nor does he call heavy federal spending socialistic, or term effective civil rights legislation "unconstitutional" as Goldwater has done. Ford is a pragmatic sniper; he votes against open housing legislation because it's "divisive" and harps on the Administration's failure to cope with prosperity-ridden inflation by cutting spending, i.e. cutting back anti-poverty programs and foreign aid. And his strategy, like Reagan's may work to some extent.

Conservative candidates no longer offer any grandiose designs for the recasting of American society. But in 1966 they really don't have to. By skillfully manipulating the issues, they may be able to make inroads into normally Democratic blocs. Ethnic minorities in the cities and even distrinaire liberals in the suburbs are agitated over what they consider the tendency of disadvantaged urban Negroes to resort to violence and rioting. That's why only 25 northern Democrats voted against anti-riot legislation proposed by a Florida G.O.P. Congressman. Many who support the Vietnam war, yet oppose escalating food prices, are willing to see reduced government spending take the form of cuts in the poverty program -- then they have warned the increasingly militant Negro minority to "go slow."

"Black Power"

Recent events have also given a boost to the tactics of conservatives. The separatist tone of much of the "black power" talk, as well as statements by Stokely Carmichael that the open housing section of the civil rights bill is "useless" may lead many white independents to conclude that Negroes really don't want total integration -- and may reinforce the instinctive opposition of whites to what they consider "forced housing" laws. And as the escalation of the air war in North Vietnam forces the President to agonize over hair-splitting strategic moves -- like whether or not to bomb power plants too close to Haiphong harbor for fear of damaging Russian tankers -- people backing the Administration's generally militant policy also listen carefully to amateur military experts like Richard Nixon who like to become publicly involved in the minutiae of guerilla war decisions.

The G.O.P. leadership then is confident that voted discontent with the economy, riots, and Vietnam will be the source of their gains in the House, Senate, and statehouses. And the irony is that it has given no indication, via any sort of clear policy recommendations, that any of these situations would improve should masses of Republicans pols return to office