THERE ARE ELECTIONS IN CANADA

To the Editors of the CRIMSON:

It has been said recently that John C. Diefeabaker is Canada's most expensive Prime Minister because it took to elections (1957, 1958) to put him in office and it is being to take two more (1962, 1963) to remove him. This conclusion, along with Mr. Ronald Cohen's conclusion in the March 13 CRIMSON, is premature. Mr. Cohen is accurately down to "brass tacks" in pin-pointing Quebec as the pivotal province in the April 3 Canadian general election. But his analytical blows are less accurate as he moves to his conclusion that "the Social Credit party and the Liberals should slice the Quebec pie alone" and "the Liberals should receive by far the larger "portion" and hence the "Liberals will be reasonably sure of a majority in the twenty-sixth Parliament."

Quebec is indeed a complicated riddle in this election, but in unravelling the complex, Mr. Cohen has overlooked the obvious. Two immutable promises exist in any analysis of Quebec political behaviour in federal elections. One is Quebec's relentless resistance to Anglo-Canadian or American encroachment on her cherished values and identity. Two is Quebec's penchant for heroes be they political or otherwise.

The decision of the Liberal leader, Lester Pearson, to arm Canadian Voodoo interceptors and Bomarcs with American made nuclear weapons is singularly resented in Quebec. Every Quebec newspaper save one has vehemently editorialized against him for this apparent "capitulation" to the Americans. In addition, in contradiction to Mr. Cohen's assertion, Premier Lesage of Quebec has not been "rallying provincial support" behind Mr. Pearson. Mr. Lesage has retained the classic stance of Quebec Premiers--that of studious aloofness, if not indifference, to the federal election campaign. There is not evidence that Mr. Lesage has put his political machine at Mr. Pearson's disposal and, but for one unavoidable appearance on the same platform, he has made no major statement on Mr. Pearson's behalf. As for the role of hero, Mr. Pearson is hopelessly miscast. He is a measured and diplomatic orator--qualities abundantly unappreciated in Quebec.

Mr. Caouette, whose Social Credit party holds 26 of Quebec's 75 seats, has been suffering reversals in Quebec. Impartial reports indicate his charisma is waning. In the lower St. Lawrence Valley where Social Credit won its narrowest victories last June, up to 10 Social Credit seats are gravely challenged. Quebec voters now find Social Credit a more confusing party than the party of last June. The party now has three voices in Quebec--often conflicting--that of the mercurial Caouette, the party leader Thompson and Mr. Cook, the popular, somewhat dissident member from Montmagny L'Islet. It is perhaps fair to ask how long such a divided party can stand as a valid repository of Quebec allegiance, especially when Quebec voters like their choices to be clear-cut and forthright.

The weakest element in Mr. Cohen's analysis is his brief dismissal of Mr. Diefenbaker's chances in Quebec. Mr. Pearson may have promised to set up a Royal Commission to study biculturism but the Prime Minister has gained admiration and trust in Quebec by his dramatic rumblings over American "intrusion" in Canadian affairs. Mr. Diefenbaker may "have the face of Bugs Bunny and sound like the voice of Moses"--but he fits the hero image better than Mr. Pearson. He has wagged his finger at Washington and he is a powerful "unequivocal-sounding" platform performer. And the crucial fact remains that the Prime Minister has not as yet begun his personal speaking campaign in Quebec.

In sum, Mr. Cohen's conclusions are premature. Quebec has yet to give John Diefenbaker a hearing. After it does, it may be that French Canada will give him many more seats than are dreamt of in Mr. Cohen's analysis. The rest of Canada is obviously bored and tired with Mr. Diefenbaker (save the fervently pro-Diefenbaker prairie provinces). But Mr. Pearson has failed to ignite a spark either. And it must be remembered that Canada's most tiring and dullest Prime Minister was MacKenzie King--and he held office for 27 years! Thomas A. Hockin   Graduate School of   Public Administration.

MR. COHEN replies: My conclusions were naturally premature, since they were written four weeks before the election they were attempting to analyze. After observing the Canadian scene for an additional two weeks, I stand by my original conclusion that the Liberal and Social Credit parties will divide Quebec between them, the Liberals taking the larger portion.

Mr. Hockin claims that Diefenbaker gained Quebec's admiration by resisting American encroachment. But Diefenbaker has ignored the problem of biculturalism which now plagues the French-Canadian community. In so doing, he has more than lost whatever advantages he gained by resisting American advances.

Mr. Hockin suggests the Diefenbaker fills the hero image so important to Quebec better than Pearson. He does not seem to realize that Real Caouette, Socred deputy leader, fills the image better than either one.

In fact, in Quebec Socred is not three voices, it is one: Caouette. And Caouette still represents the solution to the bicultural problem to many in Quebec; he thus remains a valid repository for Quebec allegiance. Although Socred charisma may be waning, especially in the lower St. Lawrence valley, support definitely seems to be growing on the Island of Montreal and in certain rural areas now represented by Liberals. Therefore, though Socred will definitely not gain, it will probably not lose enough to weaken its influence.

Finally, the Liberals will win a majority of seats in Quebec for three reasons. First, although Pearson may have displeased French-Canadians in Quebec by his nuclear policy, his recognition of the bicultural problem has more than regained their sympathy. Second, though scarcely a here figure, Pearson represents a responsible leadership and a stable government to the politically sophisticated. Third, and perhaps meet important, Lesage and others, merely by acknowledging the existence of the federal Liberal party, attract French-Canadian support to Pearson.