Broader Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Seems Very Unlikely, Kaysen Says

Carl Kaysen, professor of Economics and a U.S. test-ban negotiator in Moscow this July, said last night he is "not optimistic" about the chances for new nuclear agreements more comprehensive than the present limited test-ban treaty.

"Further steps toward disarmament are much to be desired, but I don't foresee any in the near future," Kaysen told a Lowell House discussion group.

"The main block to fruitful negotiations is the Russians' insistence that settlement of the German question comes first," Kaysen said; "and here their ideas and ours are just too far apart."

Russians Fear Softness

Another barrier, according to Kaysen, is a Russian fear of appearing "soft" towards the West. "The recent Barghoorn arrest and the stopping of U.S. convoys on the Autobahn are two indications of Russian determination to retain an uncompromising image," he said.

Even if U.S.-Soviet negotiations for a broader nuclear-ban treaty appear hopeless, the solution of a unilateral step toward disarmament, taken by this country with the hope that the Russians would follow suit, would not be advisable, Kaysen said.

"The security of other countries must be considered in such an action, and the complications and risks involved would seem to me to outweigh any chances of a significant step toward disarmament."

According to Kaysen, the main hope for more comprehensive nuclear-ban proposals is that the same pressures which persuaded the Soviets that a limited treaty was advisable in July will soon persuade them to ratify a broader agreement.

"The split with the Chinese shows signs of widening, and if the signs are true, it will become militarily advantageous for the Soviets to make new peace overtures to the West," Kaysen said. "Also the economic pressures inside the Soviet Union are making an increasingly expensive arms race more and more unpopular."

Kasyen returned to Harvard this fall after spending two years in the Kennedy administration. He served as a special assistant to the President on national security affairs, and has continued to advise the administration from his "back seat" in Cambridge. Kaysen's specialty is industrial organization.