Boulding Sees 'End' of Civilization; Future to Be Science-Dominated

"We are now in a transition period equal in magnitude to the change from pre-civilization to civilization. We are experiencing the end of civilization and an evolution to a new, scientifically-oriented post-civilization," Kenneth E. Boulding, professor of Economics at the University of Michigan, declared yesterday in a talk at Littauer.

Characterizing his views as an exercise in "social science fiction" rather than an economic theory, Boulding predicted that the post-civilization would be scientifically-oriented as opposed to the literary-dominated civilization of today. He visualized a city-less world approximating "one big Los Angeles." The marks of the new society would be its "larger lines of individual choice" and the self-contained household, that is, a spaceship.

An "equilibrium" in society will result from this second transition, Boulding foresaw. He described the equilibrium as one that would be total, and not restricted to economic areas.

Three Threats

Boulding warned that there were three threats to the achievement of this "high-level equilibrium." The first of these is the increasing population. He lamented that there are no adequate institutions available to limit the population, and called misery the only effective method at present. Looking ahead 200 years, Boulding saw a "universal slum," should this problem not be overcome.

The second pitfall is annihilation, a possibility Boulding called "a very real threat." War is a character of civilization, but a post-civilization could not afford war because of the elimination of all national defenses, he said.

The third danger, Boulding concluded, is affluence. The question to be decided is whether we can develop a high-level equilibrium not dependent on mass consumption.

The economist urged a program of research to cope with the problems of the transition period.