Law School Criminologists Publish Tables to Predict Future Offenders

Criminology may soon change from a hypothetical science to a precise and mathematical one if the predictions of two University criminologists prove accurate. The two will publish today an exhaustive series of "prediction tables" which they believe can indicate delinquents and criminals who will in the future be repeat offenders, and those who will be likely to reform.

Sheldon Glueck, Roscoe Pound Professor of Law, and his wife, Eleanor T. Glueck, research associate in criminology, have compiled the first such tables in the history of criminology. Their findings will be published today by the Harvard University Press in a book entitled "Predicting Delinquency and Crime." Based on 30-odd years of research and study, the Glueck tables chart the offender from pre-delinquency through juvenile and adult court, sentence, parole, and possible freedom.

Predicts Future Offenders

Besides potential reformers and repeaters, the system of predictive devices will, according to the Gluecks, point out children who are likely to get into trouble with the police, criminals who are likely to make trouble in prison, criminals who are most likely to commit new crimes if released, and delinquents and criminals who are likely to reform. If the tables continue to predict accurately, prison officials, social workers and clinicians will be able to isolate and help potential criminals before they become serious threats to society.

The actual behavior of juveniles corresponded with the predicted behavior 91 per cent of the time in follow-up studies involving nearly 2000 cases. Adult male and female behavior has not yet been checked as extensively with the Glueck tables, but so far their accuracy in those two divisions appears to be confirmed as well.

The major part of the tables tells what factors are most important in leading men, women, and juveniles to crime. When several of these factors are present in a single case, the Gluecks maintain, a future troublemaker may often be the result.

The behavior of juveniles, for example, is more substantially influenced by family life than by surrounding neighborhoods. An unhappy or separated family is therefore a danger sign, as is early anti-social behavior or a poor school record.

Immigration to this country when very young appears also to be a factor among boys who are repeatedly in trouble, the Gluecks discovered.

In their study of adult male criminals, the University pair found three unusual criteria which seem to determine success or failure in correctional prisons. Foreign born offenders adapt better to correctional treatment than native ones do; sons of poor families adapt better than sons of moderate or wealthy ones; and men who started work at an early age adapt better than those who started later.

Predictive tables for adult offenders also suggest that inferior intelligence, poor work habits, and small families are also likely to be characteristic of consistent trouble-makers in prison.