Decision in Britain

History to the contrary, Britain's Conservatives have a good chance of defeating the Labour Party for the third consecutive time when 28,000,000 Britons go to the polls this Tuesday. Should they win, they will enjoy the longest reign of any party since 1827.

But as election day approaches, indications of a Conservative victory, while still evident, are decreasing. In two weeks the Tory lead in publicopinion polls has fallen from a comfortable 7 per cent to a hazardous 2 per cent. This decline is more the result of the campaign than of any failures of Conservative policy over the last eight years, for England has never been more prosperous than today.

Under Prime Minister Macmillan's government, Britain has both stabilized prices and maintained virtually full employment. For the first time in this century she has both a surplus of exports over imports and a favorable dollar balance. For the first time since 1865 England is selling more to America than she is buying. Taxes have been cut in seven of the last eight budgets, industrial production and personal savings are at new peaks.

Frequently outdoing the Socialists at their own game, the Tories have increased expenditures on the welfare state by four billion dollars annually. Fulfilling a promise which the Labourites declared visionary in the 1955 election, over two million houses have gone up under the housing program. And finally, the Tories are ending the draft this year. Not surprisingly, the Conservative theme has been "Life Is Better with the Conservatives. Don't Let Labour Ruin It."

As a party whose doctrine is largely based on economic principles, it is hard for Labour to find an issue when things go well economically. Not only have Labourite charges of unemployment and economic stagnation become hard to justify, but Macmillan's efforts to break the diplomatic deadlock have frustrated the argument that the Conservatives have taken no initiative to end the cold war. Only the skeleton of Suez and the recent abuses of force in Kenya and Nyasaland haunt the Tories in foreign affairs.

Many of the old Socialist policies have long since outlived their usefulness, and such principles as nationalization are passing from the Labourite campaign vocabulary. Unfortunately, however, the Labour Party is committed to renationalizing steel and road haulage, even though this policy is now a recognized liability. On this, as on many issues, there is a sharp division between the doctrinaire socialists and the moderates. As Sir Winston Churchill, again a candidate for Parliament, observed recently, "Some of them regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. Others look on it as a cow they can milk."

But in the few weeks of the campaign the Labour Party seems to have found some profitable issues, notably pensions and high rents. They have promised every pensioner $1.40 more a week and have made broad promises of educational and medical improvements. The estimated cost of these welfare pledges is estimated at one billion dollars the first year, which Labour plans to acquire without increasing taxes.

By combining these domestic promises with aggressive campaigning, the Labour Party has stolen the offensive. Trying to dismiss such promises as "auctioneering," the Conservatives are looking for strength in the closing days of the campaign to the improved prospect of a summit meeting. The current truck strike should also benefit the Tories, as it refreshes the anti-union sentiment and reminds the voters of the close connection between the unions and the Labour Party.

So precarious is the electoral balance between the two parties, that any one of these issues could turn the election. To win, the Labour Party needs only thirty-five of the present Conservative seats. Since more than this number of seats were won in 1955 by less than 1,000 votes, the election is being decided not in the 630 seats at stake, but in about sixty marginal constituencies. A shift of less than 12,000 votes can make the difference.

It is in these constituencies where the presence of a partially-revived Liberal Party challenge can threaten the Tory majority. The Liberals are entering over two hundred candidates this time, twice as many as in 1955, when they won only six seats. The Liberals are far more dangerous to the Conservatives indirectly, for they draw many prospective Tory voters.

In spite of these dangers, however, it appears that Macmillan, "Super Mac" as he has been called recently, will reopen Parliament with a majority of about sixty-five.