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Next Monday the Foreign Ministers of the four major powers will meet to conclude one of their last, and perhaps their most important piece of business; the formulation of treaties of peace with Germany and Austria. Here ultimately will rest the greatest decision of all-whether it is possible to achieve a just agreement that will satisfy all the four nations, or whether petty rivalries and the forces of nationalism will produce another Versailles.
To clear a few of the obstacles in the path of this most important of conferences, and lay down some framework for the treaty-drafting procedure, a meeting of lesser officials of the four powers began negotiations in January. Unfortunately, five weeks or so of wrangling have produced little visible results, and Messrs. Bevin, Bidault, Marshall, and Molotov, the first string team, will be forced to start things again from the very beginning. And it would seem that these four gentlemen will find four distinct levels on which controversy will be abundant, and compromise the order of the day.
Of paramount importance geographically is the question of Germany's eastern frontier-whether the boundary shall remain along the Order and Neisse rivers, where Moscow insists the Potsdam agreement permanently located it, or whether the line shall be moved a few hundred miles further to the east, toward the old, pre-war German frontier. This latter proposal was advanced by Mr. Byrnes, and Secretary Marshall last week pledged himself to follow the Stuttgart policies straight down the line.
Economically, the major issues are twofold-the maintenance of economic barriers among the various zones of occupation; and the question of reparations and how they are to be paid. The Russians are expected to demand an immediate award of ten billion dollars worth of German goods in accordance with their claim that Britain and the United States have already seized German assets to the sum of several billion dollars. Mr. Molotov can also be expected to insist upon a speeding up of industrial removals within the three western zones of occupied Germany.
On the political front two major centers of controversy appear also. The first is that of the form of government to be contrived for the new Germany-whether it shall be the Byrnes system of a federation of small states, with weak central government; or the Moscow plan of a single, strong centralized insistence upon far stronger denazification proceedings within the other three occupation zones.
Lastly, there is a tactical decision which must be made by the United States regarding its relations with Germany far into the future. Each of the other three members of the so-called Big Four has already concluded bipartisan non-aggression pacts among themselves against the German nation, to supplement the protection under the UN charter. This series was concluded last week when an Anglo-French agreement was signed in the wake of Franco-Russian and Anglo-Russian Treaties. Mr. Byrnes has suggested that the United States also sign bilateral protection agreement against Germany, and there remains but the question of whether we shall place all our trust in the United Nations.
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