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Three political experts of the Government Department last night agreed that the outcome of the 1952 elections is still uncertain. The first speaker, Arthur N. Holcombe, Eaton Professor of the Science of Government, said before a group of Government graduate students in Littauer that he thought it would be very difficult for the Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives and even harder for them to capture the Senate.
Key States
V. O. Key, professor of Government, listed New York and Michigan as the most likely of six key states to vote for Governor Stevenson in November. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey are more likely to go for Eisenhower in the elections, while California is still in doubt.
Stevenson must win at least one of these states and probably two to insure victory, Key thought. He assumed that 17 other states with 206 electoral votes were verging toward Stevenson, including Massachusetts, Texas, the Solid South, and most of the border states. He listed only 83 electoral votes, mostly in the Mid and Far West, as equally sure for Eisenhower.
Minority Votes Decisive
To the six key states, Oscar Handlin, associate professor of History, added Illinois as another doubtful state whose vote could be decided by racial or religious minorities. Handlin feels that the Negroes, Eastern Europeans, and Irish Catholics were ready earlier in the campaign to be split successfully as groups from the New Deal Democratic alliance, but that the Republican campaign so far has not been strategically aimed to win these minorities.
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