Slichter Says Cold War Aids Economy; Sees Bright 1980

Two cars in every garage and a swimming pool in every back yard--that's the prediction of Sumner H. Slichter, Lamont University Professor, who says it may happen in 30 years. The economist's forecasts are printed in next month's Atlantic, in the feature story "How Big in 1980?"

Slichter predicted that the national output will be over 550 billion dollars in 1980--more than twice what it is now. He based his figure on four assumptions:

(1) That the population then will be roughly 175 million; (2) that the percentage of workers in the population will remain the same; (3) that output per man hour will continue to increase "at about the rate that has prevailed for generations"; and (4) that each person will work only three-fourths of the hours that he does now.

Medical Services

"More important than greater consumption will be the rise in the use of services," Slichter concluded. "Medical services will be used far more . . . the proportion of people completing high school and spending some time in college will rise . . . travel will grow in popularity."

"The most interesting possibility of all is the effect of greater leisure upon interest in the arts. A nation on a 30-hour week will have more opportunity to pursue a multitude of arts, from gardening to painting and writing, than any people has ever possessed.

"Surely the chance is good that the arts will flourish in the United States as never before in the history of the world."