Reds in Italy Seen as Weak By Salvemini

Gaetano Salvemini, Lauro de Bosis Lecturer on the History of Italian Civilization, told a Hunt Hall audience last night that a Communist majority in the coming Italian elections would result in a Fascist revolt, although he expressed the belief that the Communists have no chance and "I think they know it."

Speaking on "Which Way Italy?" under the auspices of the Society for Industrial Democracy, Salvemini predicted that 40 percent of the votes would go to the Communists, 60 to the Christian Democrats, and the 20 percent that have the power to swing the election, to the Conservatives.

He described Italy's recovery as "miraculous," with agriculture and almost half of the Italian population back to normal. Under continued Marshall Plan aid, Italy will be self-supporting in five years, if the war fever collapses, he added.

Dreads Three Events

Three things which Salvemini fears most are war which would mean the total downfall of Europe, Tite's taking possession of Trieste, and a Communist triumph in the elections. The Fascists, who were not powerful in 1946, must be reckoned with in this election since they hold about half of the defunct Common Man party's votes.

The Socialist party's strength was undermined, he declayed, by the split into Communist and De Gasperi factions. The Communist strike last fall lessened rather than added to the party's power.

A fifth of the population, who are living on pensions, and the white collar workers are in bad circumstances, but if inflation can be controlled their situation can be improved, he pointed out.

He predicted a "left center" party within five years, which will take the place of the Communists.