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When the full impact of the European war comes to bear on Asia, serious upheavals in India, and Japan's return to an Anglo-Japanese alliance, are two possibilities foreseen by Bruce C. Hopper '24, associate professor of Government.
In an interview yesterday the white-haired, youthful World War ace discussed Asia's murky future.
"The effect of the war on Asia, although not clear, is bound to be tremendous," he began. "Already, Ghandi, while offering support to Britain, has raised the question of Britain's war aims and the question of the fate of India and her possible independence after the war.
"Naturally, if Britain were to lose the war, it is likely that India would become the field of competition among other exploiting powers, possibly Germany and Japan, with Soviet Russia assuming the role of champion of the Indian masses."
Japan Must Shift
Turning to Japan, he said, "The deal between the Nazis and the Bolsheviks and the armistice between Russia and Japan over the Mongolian-Manchukuan border would indicate that Japan must reorient her foreign policy.
"Unless there is a change in the present lineup, it is possible that Japan will have to allocate Northern Manchuria to Russia and limit her expansion, on which is based her dream of a new order in Asia, to South China."
Russia and Japan are still likely to collide, Professor Hopper believes. "Ever since the Mauchukuo incident in 1931, the Bolsheviks have concentrated their energies on building a defense system in the Far East against the Japanese, involving a railroad parallel to the Trans-Siberian, and industrial self-sufficiency for Russia's Far Eastern territories," he explained.
Russia Fears Two-Front War
"But, like Germany, Russia fears most the necessary of a fight on two fronts. So long as a large part of the Red Army is stationed in the newly acquired territory in Poland, it is unlikely that Russia will bring effective pressure on Japan to round out Soviet Far Eastern positions by taking Mauchukuo.
"Should Russia be able to relax vigilance in Poland, and again turn attention to the Far East," be went on, "we might ace another volte face in Japan's orientation.
"That is, Japan may return to the comfortable framework of the Anglo-Japanese alliance. That contingency, however, depends on the capacity of the British navy to continue to rule the seas."
A renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance would "probably be welcomed in America," Professor Hopper predicted.
"All that one can safely say," he stated in conclusion, "is that the position of the two great neutrals likely to get into the war, Italy and Japan, will probably be in doubt until the military issue in the West becomes definitive.
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