Karpovich Declares That War Between Japan And Russia Will Probably Occur This Spring

"There will probably be a war between Japan and Russia this spring," said Michael Karpovich, assistant professor of History, in an interview with the CRIMSON. "If there is a war, Japan, and not Russia, will start it, because the Russians realize that it would play havoc with their economic plans to get embroiled in a war. Russia can't afford to fight but Japan will force her to do so because she wants to safeguard her position in Manchuria. It is hard to tell what the objectives of such a struggle would be. Japan may be trying to set up a buffer state in Eastern Siberia. This would be difficult, because the population of this state would be almost entirely Russian.

"Russia is trying to keep on good terms with Japan. The Russians own the Chinese Eastern Railway, which runs through Manchuria, and to maintain peace they would be willing to sell it. However, the Japanese don't trust Russia, and this will come to be a source of trouble. There is no absolute necessity for war, but one will be caused by the over-abundance of military-minded people in Japan.

"Feverish preparations are now going on in Russia to withstand the Japanese plans. Russia has double-tracked its Siberian railroads; it has sent colonies of men into Siberia. But Russia's great difficulty is that it is too far away from the seat of trouble, Northern Manchuria."

Professor Karpovich thought that one hindrance to Japan's plans was its weak financial condition. As far as political strength is concerned, he stated that opposition to the military party in Japan has been, on the whole, successfully muzzled. "Although Japan is known to be vulnerable to an air attack," he continued, "this weakness has only a psychological value."

Karpovich declared that the war would have no international significance. "It will be a purely local affair. The only other country that might be interested would be China, who might strike Japan if the Russians were winning. United States recognition of Russia will have no influence on the war, although some people say that the United States recognized Russia in order to keep an eye on Japan."