PEACE THROUGH DISTRUST

During the past year many capable observers have emphasized the parallelism between present developments in Europe and those of 1914. These observations are strongly supported by history, yet there are also in the existing situation many elements qutie unlike those of the period preceeding the last great War. Most important is the fact that there is now no rigidly crystallized system of alliances no counterpart of the Triple Entente and Alliance.

This fact is strikingly illustrated by the two great international crises of this year the murder of Chancellor Delltuss of Austria and the more recent assassination of King Alexander of Jugo-Slavia with its present Hungarian development. In the first case France and Italy, with the support of Great Britain, were united in opposing any extension of German influence into Austria. Since the little government was able to find no support It was willing to retreat and peace was preserved.

In the present situation, however, the alignment is different. Jugo-Slavia, apparently confident of French support, has taken a threatening attitude towards Hungary. Meanwhile Italy, whose alliance with Hungary has proved to be mutually beneficial, is the natural enemy of the Serb-Croat-Slovene state and urges resistance to its aggressions. Therefore any conflict resulting from this crisis would find France and Italy in opposite camps.

This tangled network of friendships and antipathies is the strongest influence for preserving peace at this time. It does not, of course, remove the possibility that unreasoning nationalist sentiments may be aroused into headlong action. Nevertheless, the very atmosphere of uncertainty should cause governments to tread warily.