GERMANY'S MAN-POWER

After driving for over a month with an Intensity hitherto unequalled, the German offensive has finally come to a stop. Whether it has been a great enemy victory or a triumph of Allied resistance is a relative question which time alone can determine. In point of territory conquered it has been the most significant movement of the latter years of the war. An Allied gain of equal importance would have been heralded as a great victory. There is, therefore, no discounting the fact that the Allies have suffered a serious set-back. Upon the other side, however, the Allied line has remained intact, retreating only before superior numbers and inflicting tremendous losses upon the enemy. If this war, even after the Russian collapse, is a war of attrition, the Allies have gained rather than lost. The importance the spring drive of 1918 depends on the present state of German manpower.

It is estimated by those who are in position to know that the German army today numbers approximately 5,300,000 men. From her own resources Germany can add annually to this a total of 600,000 at the maximum. The problem before the Allies is one of inflicting casualties at a rate higher than this national increase. During the last month and a half no less than 300,000 Germans have fallen. The possibility of defeating Germany by a slow weakening of her manpower is therefore one of very practical importance.

The great mass of the German army is concentrated on the western front. There remain but a few divisions in Roumania, only one in Palestine, and none whatever in Mesopotamia or on the Italian front. The war must be decided in the west, where great armies are drawn up. We have resigned ourselves to a long and bitter struggle. It is through the long process of attrition, of wearing Germany out by sheer destruction of numbers, that the final victory is to be won. Serious as the events of the immediate past have been, they afford no basis for despondency. When interpreted in this light, they act rather as a prelude to the ultimate defeat of the Central Powers.