Frye Sees Coup d'Etat Attempt At Naguib by Egypt's Landlords

Land reform cannot be an overnight panacea for Egypt's maladies, said Richard N. Frye, assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies. He predicted that if the nation's powerful landlords fail to reach terms with General Naguib they may resort to bribing army officers or even assassination to block this reform.

Frye foresees Naguib pulling off a shrewd political deal whereby British troops would leave the Suez Canal. If successful, he could become king and start a new dynastic order.

The two great problems facing the Egyptians today are overpopulation and "the terrific disparity between the upper classes and the peasants." Frye asserted, Egypt, leader of the Arab world, has a population of 20 million and a large area of arid, unproductive land. He said that their economic mainstay is cotton, grown on large feudal landholdings.

"The greatest crime of the landowners," Frye said. "Is that although they made their wealth in Egypt, this money wasn't used to build up the country."

Low Living Standard

A recent Rockefeller Foundation study reports that the living standard of the Egyptian peasants or fellaheen is below that of peasants in India and China. Naguib has the overwhelming support of these peasants as well as of the army, Frye stated.

Under Naguib's land reform law, landholdings in excess of 200 acres will be taxed five times the present tax rate as of January 1965. Land not voluntarily sold will be taken over gradually with a small compensation paid in government bonds. This land, in turn will be sold to small farmers.

"It false to think of land reform as a panacea for Egypt," Frye said. Although it will relieve some of the feudal disparity between classes, "only a small percentage of the fellaheen will get land." An ominous note: "The cotton crop will fall to places."

Frye said that the landowners are trying to persuade Naguib that this law will ruin Egypt's economy. "He depends on army backing to see this measure through." If the landowners can't dissuade Naguib, they may try to "regain control of the army through bribery," or even kill him.

Seapeageat

Frye called the issues of the Suez Canal and the Sudan a political blind and the British a traditional scapegoat" by which attention is diverted from domestic difficulties.

"All the Egyptians could gain from control of the Suez is some sovereignty and prestige," he stated. "It's quite possible that Naguib will make a deal with the British." In return for their withdrawal from the Canal, the RAF in this area and the Egyptians would agree to join some Mediterranean military pact, he speculated.

Five called attention to the authoritarian background of Egypt and said of Naguib. The people would deify him. He could easily set up a new dynastic order. The British would by barm to see the crown on a friendly head."