It is a temptation as a college student in the Class of 2017 to imagine that somehow
college was always like this. Particularly at Harvard, it is obvious that, in recent decades, the demographic makeup of our classes has undergone a revolution in terms of socioeconomic and ethnic diversity. Recent data published and analyzed by the Chronicle of Higher Education reveals that the revolution is set to continue, and that the Harvard Class of 2035, as well as other college classes across the United States, will change dramatically in the coming decades. Here are the top five major changes:
college was always like this. Particularly at Harvard, it is obvious that, in recent decades, the demographic makeup of our classes has undergone a revolution in terms of socioeconomic and ethnic diversity.
Recent data published and analyzed by the Chronicle of Higher Education reveals that the revolution is set to continue, and that the Harvard Class of 2035, as well as other college classes across the United States, will change dramatically in the coming decades. Here are the top five major changes:
1. “Two or more.” Will categories of ethnicity fade into less and less relevancy? The number of students choosing the category of “two of more” for ethnicity will explode to 46.6%. This follows a sharp decline in the number of white, black, and Asian students.
2. White declines the most. Whilst, as above, other racial categories such as black and Asian also decline, the vast majority of the decline in college-aged students comes from white families. This will mean whites losing majority status on even more campuses.
3. Californication. On the whole, the number of college-aged students will decline for the next fourteen years, and California is no exception: A fall from 535,005 to 494,058 is expected. But in Massachusetts the fall from 83,316 to 71,434 is even more dramatic. The net effect? More Californians in college relative to Massachusetts and other New England states with similar demographic profiles. The Californian:Massachusettsian college student ratio will jump in the next fourteen years from 6:41 to 6:91.
4. Fewer rich kids, more poor. Representative of other demographic changes, the number of students coming from richer, whiter, better educated counties will fall sharply, whilst the number coming from more ethnically diverse, poorer and less well educated countries will, for the large part, remain stable or, in some cases, increase. Illustratively, Rockingham County, New Hampshire, home of Phillips Exeter Academy, will see a fall of white students from 4,086 to 2,316 and all other ethnicities from 364 to 297. Whilst Jefferson County, Louisiana, one of the state’s most deprived areas and far less well educated, will experience an increase in students from 5,122 to 5,627. This will certainly test school’s financial aid budgets but provide great opportunity and necessity for school’s to become better at attracting a growing pool of super
diverse candidates.
diverse candidates.
5. More internationals. What can we speculate will come from this great decline? More internationals. Many international countries are experiencing the opposite population pyramids to a majority of the United States, schools such as Harvard are yet to fully tap into much talent from frontier economies, and the effects of financial aid and opportunity have yet to embed themselves in many countries’ educational cultures. In the Class of 2035, it could be internationals that become the new generation of WASPs: filling gaps in funding, reversing falling enrolments and compensating for ethnic changes.